Guiding your organization to make better marketing mix decisions

You can’t measure your way to a decision.

At some point, you have to act – build the plan, make the trade-off, move the dollars.

That’s where most marketing mix efforts fall short. Too often, mix modeling stops at measurement instead of helping teams decide.

Modern marketing mix modeling (MMM) should be a decision system – one that connects marketing, finance, and strategy so teams can choose investments that actually move revenue, profit, and market share.

Why Measurement Isn’t Enough

Marketers don’t struggle because they lack data. They struggle because data alone doesn’t tell them what to do next.

Budget planning, forecasting, reallocation – these all require judgment, context, and speed. MMM can’t just report on what worked last year; it has to guide what to do now.

That’s why the next generation of MMM focuses on decision-making, not dashboards. It’s built to help organizations plan, predict, and prioritize with confidence.

The Three Forces That Derail Good Decisions

Every marketing organization wrestles with the same three challenges – what we call the Three Cs:

Complexity

Multiple brands, markets, and tactics. Diminishing returns. Short-term vs. long-term trade-offs. Data that never tells the full story.

Conflict

Different teams, different objectives, different interpretations of success. Marketing, finance, and product rarely speak the same language.

Cost

The chase for certainty – “just one more model, one more dataset” – can drain budgets and timelines.

You can’t eliminate the Three Cs, but you can design your mix-modeling process to manage them.

MMM as a Decision System

Think of your MMM like a stool – it should support the weight of your biggest decisions.

If it’s built on shaky ground, it collapses. But if it’s designed for how decisions are really made – the goals, trade-offs, and alternatives in play – it holds steady.

That foundation is what we call the Frame.

Start with the Frame

Before running any model, define what’s in play:

• What outcomes matter most (revenue, profit, NPV)?
• Which tactics or markets are under consideration?
• What external factors influence results – seasonality, pricing, distribution, economic trends?

Keen users start here. They map every factor and tag it as something they can control (Decision Factor) or account for (Environmental Factor).

This clarity keeps teams aligned when it’s time to invest – or cut.

What the Keen Model Delivers

The Keen Platform doesn’t stop at explaining the past. It forecasts the financial future of your marketing:

• Converts performance into revenue forecasts and contribution curves
• Rolls them into cash flows from marketing investments
• Discounts them into a single number – Net Present Value (NPV) – so leaders can compare options apples-to-apples

The result? A shared language between marketing and finance, built on numbers both teams trust.

Why Traditional Methods Fall Short

Legacy mix models rely too heavily on observation. They expect data alone to explain everything – but data is always incomplete.

Keen’s modern approach integrates your full information estate: incrementality studies, A/B tests, market context, and expert input.

Using a Bayesian estimation approach, we combine those sources to produce forecasts that are realistic, transparent, and actionable.

It’s not about finding the perfect model – it’s about finding the model that helps you decide faster and invest smarter.

Common Pitfalls (and How to Avoid Them)

1. Mismatched Frame

When the model doesn’t reflect the decision leadership needs to make – say, adding a new channel or testing a new mix – teams lose trust.

Frame the model for the decision ahead, not just historical data.

2. Improper Use of ROI or Contributions

ROIs show the return on the current level of spend, not every possible level.

Use response curves and NPV optimization to understand where you’ll actually maximize value.

3. Missed Timelines

Ambiguity kills momentum. Define your data sources, factor names, and decision criteria before you start modeling.

Time-box reviews to prevent “analysis paralysis.”

Best Practices for Modern MMM

1. Establish the Frame

Identify who’s making the decision, what outcomes matter, and what levers are in play. Document the logic behind your assumptions.

2. Be a Bayesian

Combine data with expertise. Integrate prior learnings, market context, and realistic expectations so the model reflects how your organization actually operates.

3. Use Software

MMM shouldn’t be a one-off spreadsheet. Use technology to standardize factors, simulate investment scenarios, and forecast long-term impact in seconds – not weeks.

How Keen Helps Teams Cut Through the 3 Cs

Complexity → Simplified modeling, portfolio planning, NPV forecasting
Conflict → Shared language and financial alignment between teams
Cost → Automated modeling and decision-ready outputs, cutting time and spend

Keen helps marketing and finance move in sync – grounding strategy in data that everyone understands and can act on.

Make Decisions with Keen

Marketing mix modeling is no longer just about proving ROI. It’s about building the decision infrastructure that helps your organization plan smarter, pivot faster, and grow profitably.

Keen’s platform does exactly that – turning MMM into a real-time system for forecasting, optimizing, and communicating the value of marketing investment.

Start a free trial or talk to our team about plan optimization with NPV and risk.