About This Episode
Retail media often returns more than any other tactic in the marketing mix. Keen’s models are built on $45 billion in analyzed marketing investment, and across Keen’s client base they show brands could put 30% more into retail media and still earn a strong return. Most brands spend that budget on search. Mike Chiasson makes the case that the bigger return is in display, streaming video and social, the upper-funnel placements retailers like Walmart have only started selling in the last few years.
Where the Budget Comes From
Most retail media spend is new money. It usually comes from trade budgets owned by sales teams, not from money moved out of Meta or Google. Brand size matters too. Brands under $50M in revenue put about half of their retail media, trade and shopper marketing budget into retail media. At larger brands, that share falls to 15% to 30%.
Why Search Isn’t Enough
Smaller brands often come from D2C, where performance marketing trained them to buy what converts today. In retail, that means search. Search keeps product moving off the shelf, but upper-funnel spend builds demand at every retailer that carries you. Retail media now makes that spend possible. Walmart opened up streaming video with Vizio, and retailer social is small, growing fast and delivering very high returns this early on the curve.
Plan on the Next Dollar, Not the Last One
ROAS tells you what a tactic returned on average. It doesn’t tell you what to do next. A tactic can average a $2 return while the last dollar you spent on it returned $0.75, which means you should pull back, not push harder. Chiasson explains why marginal ROI, the return on your next dollar, is the number to plan against. He also covers how Keen’s Bayesian models predict how a new retailer, like Target, will perform for your brand before you spend a dollar there, with no lift test required.
Key Takeaways
- Retail media ROI often beats other tactics, with room for 30% more investment.
- Most retail media spend is new money from trade budgets, not moved out of other media.
- Brands under $50M put about half of their retail-focused budget into retail media.
- The largest untapped return is in upper-funnel placements, not search.
- Marginal ROI, not ROAS, should decide where your next dollar goes.
Who This Is For
This episode is for growth and media leaders at brands selling in more retailers every quarter. It’s for anyone who needs to know which part of their retail media budget is building new demand.
What to Do Next
Check how much of your retail media budget goes to search. If it’s nearly all of it, move your next dollars into display, video or social at your most important retailers. Then give that spend a full planning cycle before you judge it. Upper-funnel returns take longer to show up, and they last longer too.
About the Series
Harness the Halo is a six-part series from DTC and Keen about marketing that doesn’t pay you back the same day, and the measurement that helps you invest in it with confidence. Episode 1 covered what’s working across brands in the Keen portfolio. Episode 2 followed one brand working out which channels drive its sales. Episode 3 covers retail media.
