Every marketer and media buyer has faced it: the frustration of campaigns that underperform during the off-season or the chaos of overspending during peak periods without seeing the desired ROI.
Seasonality in marketing shapes consumer behavior and campaign performance more than many realize. For marketers, it’s not just about planning around major holidays—it’s also about understanding how predictable patterns in demand influence campaigns across channels and throughout the year. Be it maximizing ad spend during peak seasons or navigating the quieter months, mastering seasonality is the difference between achieving your KPIs and wasting your budget.
What is seasonality in marketing?
Seasonality in marketing refers to predictable patterns in consumer demand and behavior at specific times of the year. These trends are often linked to factors like holidays, weather changes, and cultural events, creating periods of high and low engagement across different industries.
Ignoring seasonality leads to missed opportunities or wasted budgets during low-demand periods. Conversely, aligning campaigns with these cycles helps you capitalize on heightened consumer interest and spending.
Key characteristics of marketing seasonality
Seasonality is:
- Cyclical: Patterns repeat annually, making them predictable and measurable.
- Industry-specific: Different industries experience seasonality in unique ways. For example, the travel industry peaks during summer vacations and holidays.
- Influenced by local and cultural events: Festivals, school terms, or sporting seasons create micro-trends in specific markets.
- Weather-driven: Warmer temperatures boost outdoor gear sales, while colder months push indoor activities and winter fashion. For example, the demand for “snow tires” increases during the winter months.
Google trends showing the seasonality of the term “snow tire”
Examples of seasonality
Let’s break down common examples of marketing seasonality to understand its variations based on different industries:
- Travel and hospitality: Optimizing your holiday travel spend is difficult. This industry sees a peak in summer vacations and winter holidays, fueling demand for flights, hotels, and experiences. On the other hand, spring and fall often require discounts or promotions to maintain bookings.
- Food and beverage: Seasonal demand is often tied to the weather. Iced drinks and outdoor dining flourish in summer, while comfort food and warm beverages gain popularity in winter.
- Fitness and wellness: January marks a surge in gym memberships and fitness product sales due to New Year’s resolutions. The secondary peak comes in late spring as people prepare for summer activities.
Difference between seasonality in marketing and seasonal marketing
While marketing seasonality and seasonal marketing are related, they’re not the same. Understanding the difference will help you plan both long-term strategies and short-term campaigns.
- Seasonality in marketing provides the foundation for understanding long-term patterns.
- Seasonal marketing is a tactical approach that helps you capitalize on specific events.
| Aspect | Seasonality in marketing | Seasonal marketing |
| Definition | Predictable patterns in consumer behavior driven by recurring annual trends. | Specific seasonal marketing campaigns designed to leverage a particular season, event, or holiday. |
| Focus | Long-term planning to align strategies with cyclical demand shifts. | Short-term, targeted campaigns for immediate impact. |
| Timeframe | Year-round, with attention to recurring peaks and troughs. | Limited to the duration of the specific season or event. |
| Example | Increased toy sales in December due to holiday gifting traditions. | A retailer running a “Buy One, Get One” toy promotion during Black Friday. |
How seasonality impacts marketing
Seasonality goes beyond understanding when consumer demand rises or falls—it fundamentally shapes how you approach your campaigns. Failing to account for seasonality means wasted ad spend, underwhelming results, and missed opportunities.
Areas of impact include:
- Budget allocation: Seasonality helps you optimize your marketing spend, so you don’t overspend during low-demand periods.
- Channel strategy: Seasonal trends often dictate which platforms and marketing channel mix perform best. For example, social media ads may dominate during holiday gift-buying, while search ads perform better during tax season.
- Connection with customers: Tailored campaigns that align with your target audience’s seasonal needs or emotions are far more effective than generic approaches. For example, according to an NRF report, 197 million people made a purchase during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Your seasonal marketing efforts will get you great returns when you have such a number of eyes on your brand.
How to map the seasonality for your marketing strategy
Mapping seasonality helps you to identify demand patterns, plan campaigns effectively, and allocate resources where they’ll have the most impact. Follow this five-step process to create a clear roadmap for your marketing efforts.
1. Analyze historical performance data
Your own historical data is the most reliable source for understanding seasonality in your business. Examine past performance metrics to uncover when demand spiked, which ad campaigns worked best, and which channels delivered the highest ROI.
- Look at sales data for the past few years to identify seasonal peaks and troughs. For example, according to a McKinsey report, 56% of consumers start shopping in October or earlier for the holidays. This is an indicator for you to implement your seasonal marketing plan earlier to capture this segment of the audience.
- Analyze website traffic trends to pinpoint high-traffic months or weeks.
- Review past campaign performance to determine which messaging, channels, or offers resonated with your audience.
You can either complete the above process manually or use an AI-powered platform like Keen to do it in one click.
2. Leverage tools for insights
Tools like Google Trends, audience analytics platforms, and competitor monitoring solutions provide a broader context for your industry and audience behavior.
- Use Google Trends to identify when specific keywords or topics gain traction. For instance, searches for “back-to-school supplies” often peak in late July and early August.
- Monitor competitors to see how they adjust their campaigns and messaging throughout the year.
Case in point: Keen’s optimization strategy for a seasonal brand delivered great results. While successful in the past with a “tried and true” back-to-school marketing strategy, the brand was hesitant to alter its approach for fear of disrupting the status quo. But then the Keen Platform identified opportunities to build momentum pre-season, maximizing results during peak weeks.
The results? A projected $12M increase in marketing-contributed revenue with no additional spend, backed by a 75% confidence level. Keen’s multi-year profitability insights revealed more opportunities for sustained growth, including a 49% increase in profit ROI and strategies to amplify long-term impact.
Alt text: Seasonal brand’s budget optimization using Keen
3. Segment your audience
Different segments of your audience may respond to seasonality in unique ways. Segmenting allows you to tailor your campaigns for maximum relevance and effectiveness.
- Demographics: Younger audiences might engage more with social media ads during holidays, while older demographics prefer email marketing promotions.
- Geography: Seasonal trends differ by location. For example, southern regions might see continued demand for outdoor products in fall, while northern regions transition to winter goods.
- Behavior: Analyze purchase history to identify seasonal patterns for different customer groups. For example, consumers are increasingly preferring using mobile devices to purchase, hitting $69.8 billion in mobile spend from Nov 1 to Dec 2 according to Adobe’s 2024 holiday shopping report. This means you have to keep a keen eye on your audience’s shifting preferences to tailor your digital marketing and in-store promotions to create an omnichannel experience.
4. Build a seasonal calendar
Create a seasonal calendar to get your holiday planning right. It helps you visualize when and how to execute campaigns, keeping you always prepared for peak periods.
- Include key dates, such as holidays, industry events, and major cultural milestones.
- Plan campaigns and promotions several months in advance to secure ad placements and creative resources.
- Use the calendar to balance high-effort campaigns during peak seasons with lighter, brand-building initiatives during slower periods.
Learn more: Extend profit beyond the cycles of seasonal marketing
5. Test and refine
Seasonality evolves over time. Continuous testing and refinement align your strategy with changing consumer behavior.
- Leverage scenario-based marketing planning to test different strategies and how they’d perform.
- A/B test campaigns to determine the most effective messaging, visuals, and offers.
- Use post-campaign analysis to identify areas of improvement for the next season.
- Adjust your strategy based on external factors, such as economic shifts or new trends.
Learn more: Discover the differences between marketing mix and marketing strategy
Build resilient marketing plans with Keen
Seasonality in marketing isn’t just about capitalizing on the highs—it’s about planning for the lows, adapting to unpredictability, and staying ahead of competitors.
To simplify this process, Keen empowers marketers with data-driven insights to anticipate seasonal trends, optimize budgets, and refine messaging. Our platform empowers you with predictive analytics, real-time reporting, demand planning, and more.
Ready to take control of seasonality and turn it into a competitive advantage? Start a trial with Keen to make smarter decisions and achieve better results all year round.
